Samuel Press
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Can the steadfast U.S.-Canada alliance survive the mounting pressures of trade and security? The White House has signaled that even traditional alliances like Canada’s cannot be taken for granted. In fact, President Donald Trump warned Ottawa not to “rely on America’s previous behaviors and longstanding policies” as a guide for future relations. With Washington closely watching Canada’s upcoming federal election, the bilateral bond faces its sternest test in decades. Observers note that Canadians are heading to the polls amid “the most fraught moment in U.S.-Canada relations in 80 years”– a moment when old trade grievances are colliding with new security imperatives.
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From softwood lumber to dairy, longstanding trade feuds have strained the once-easy rapport between Ottawa and Washington. Canada’s trade minister voiced “disappoint[ment]” early in 2023 as the U.S. moved to maintain steep tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, urging that a negotiated end to this decades-long dispute was “in the best interests of both countries”. The lumber battle – rooted in U.S. claims that Canadian timber is unfairly subsidized – escalated in recent years, with Washington at one point doubling import duties and hammering Canada’s forestry sector. Another thorn is Canada’s protected dairy market. U.S. officials complain that Ottawa’s sky-high dairy tariffs (around 250% on over-quota imports) and quota allocation tricks shut out American farmers. In late 2023, President Biden’s trade envoy blasted Canada’s foot-dragging on dairy access and vowed to “use all available tools” to ensure U.S. farmers see the benefits of the USMCA trade pact. These economic irritants aren’t just about dollars – they have begun to spill over into the strategic realm. The Trump administration, for instance, justified tariffs on Canadian steel and other goods on national security grounds. And in early 2025, Washington even briefly threatened sweeping 25% tariffs on all Canadian imports under a pretext of an “economic emergency” (citing cross-border fentanyl and migration). Ottawa angrily denounced that move as a USMCA violation and readied retaliatory measures before the U.S. hit pause. Such episodes underscore how trade and security have become intertwined, rattling a relationship built on trust.
Trade tensions are now feeding mistrust in defense cooperation circles. U.S. lawmakers and Pentagon officials openly question Canada’s commitment to collective security, noting chronic underinvestment in defense. A leaked Pentagon assessment in 2023 revealed that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau privately admitted Canada “will never meet” NATO’s 2% GDP defense spending target – and warned that “widespread” military shortfalls were “harming ties” with allies. Washington has long pressed Ottawa to bolster its forces and Arctic infrastructure, as Russia and China grow more assertive in the High North. Joint defense projects like NORAD’s modernization – new Arctic radar arrays and surveillance to guard the continent – are moving forward, but only after U.S. prodding. (Notably, the two nations worked through NORAD to track and shoot down a Chinese spy balloon that violated both countries’ airspace in 2023.) American strategists worry that a chill in relations could “disrupt joint defense initiatives” – even imperil the sharing of critical defense industrial base components and technologies that the U.S. relies on. Such a rupture would weaken North America’s security at a time of global turbulence.
Washington is therefore eyeing Canada’s election for a potential reset. U.S. officials hope that a new mandate in Ottawa – whether for a refreshed Liberal leadership or a Conservative government – will bring urgency to resolving disputes. There is talk of bold steps to shore up the alliance. One idea gaining traction is forging a customs union or common tariff regime within North America to finally normalize trade irritants. By evolving the USMCA free-trade area into a closer economic union, the two sides could eliminate the tariff wars and focus on shared competition with global rivals. Another priority is building a more cohesive continental defense posture – essentially a North American security perimeter. This could mean deeper coordination on everything from Arctic surveillance to border security against illicit flows. Canadian and U.S. leaders alike recognize that “the joint defense of North America...will require deepening cooperation and integration” as new threats emerge. Some Canadian figures have even floated the notion of new joint bases or commands in the Arctic.
Ultimately, both nations have far more to gain together than apart. The White House’s tough talk is a wake-up call that the status quo is untenable – but it’s also an opening bid for a stronger partnership. If Ottawa and Washington can strike grand bargains on trade (perhaps ending the lumber and dairy wars) and recommit to a unified defense strategy, North America’s two democracies could turn a tense moment into a renewal. A post-election reset featuring a trade peace – maybe even an EU-style customs arrangement – and a fortified defense alliance (from NORAD to the Arctic) would not only mend fences, but also harness the full potential of a united continent. The world is watching closely; the onus is now on Canada’s next government and U.S. leadership to seize this chance to reinforce a cornerstone alliance for the 21st century.
Sources: Recent news and analysis on U.S.-Canada trade disputes and defense cooperation
reuters.com, ustr.gov, samuelgroup.us, wilsoncenter.org, including scenario-based forecasts for 2025 wilsoncenter.orgcfr.org.
