Samuel Press
The recent election of Mark Carney as Prime Minister of Canada marks a critical inflection point in U.S.-Canada relations, particularly in the domains of defense and trade. From the vantage point of Washington, Carney’s policy agenda — characterized by an emphasis on enhanced defense spending, procurement diversification, Arctic sovereignty, multilateral engagement, and domestic industrial revitalization — presents both strategic opportunities and challenges. As North America faces an increasingly volatile global environment, recalibrating the bilateral relationship will be essential to preserving continental security and strengthening the broader Western alliance system.
Carney’s pledge to surpass NATO’s 2% of GDP defense spending benchmark, backed by a projected CAD $30.9 billion investment over four years, addresses a longstanding American concern regarding burden-sharing within the Alliance. Historically, Canada’s underinvestment in defense capabilities has been a persistent source of friction between Ottawa and Washington. Carney’s commitment to defense modernization aligns Canadian efforts more closely with U.S. strategic imperatives, particularly in relation to NORAD modernization and joint operational readiness. The United States will expect Canada’s increased investment to be directed toward areas that reinforce interoperability, including aerospace defense, cybersecurity, and integrated command and control systems.
A notable element of Carney’s defense strategy is the diversification of Canada’s procurement sources, including the acquisition of Over-the-Horizon Radar (OTHR) technology from Australia. While Washington recognizes the rationale for strengthening Canada’s supply chain resilience, this shift introduces a layer of complexity to the historically integrated North American defense industrial base. The United States will closely monitor the implications for interoperability, technology transfer, and supply chain security under longstanding frameworks such as the Defense Production Sharing Agreement (DPSA). Ensuring that procurement diversification complements — rather than complicates — U.S.-Canada defense industrial cooperation will be critical.
Carney’s prioritization of Arctic sovereignty is likely to be received favorably in Washington. The Arctic’s strategic importance has grown significantly, with adversarial powers expanding their presence in the region. Canada’s plans to strengthen year-round military presence, enhance port and surveillance infrastructure, and deepen partnerships with Indigenous communities align with U.S. objectives articulated in successive Arctic security strategies. Greater Canadian investment in Arctic capabilities offers an opportunity for closer bilateral cooperation on domain awareness, infrastructure development, and joint operational exercises, reinforcing the security of the continent’s northern approaches.
Carney’s foreign policy vision seeks to embed Canada more deeply within global security frameworks by strengthening defense and diplomatic partnerships with Europe and the Indo-Pacific. Expanding relationships with the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Australia, and Japan mirrors U.S. strategic priorities aimed at countering authoritarian influence and promoting a rules-based international order. However, while Canada’s expanded multilateral engagements are broadly supportive of U.S. interests, Washington will expect Ottawa to maintain close bilateral coordination, particularly in areas related to technology development, intelligence sharing, and strategic communications.
The revitalization of Canada’s domestic defense sector under Carney — through targeted investments in research, development, and advanced manufacturing — is broadly consistent with U.S. efforts to strengthen critical supply chains. A more capable and innovative Canadian defense industrial base can enhance North American resilience and competitiveness. Nevertheless, Washington will be attentive to the risk of new protectionist measures that could impede cross-border trade and collaboration. Structuring defense industrial policies that promote mutual benefit, technological innovation, and supply chain security across North America will be essential.
From an American perspective, Canada’s evolving defense and trade policies under Carney represent a welcome maturation of the bilateral relationship, but one that demands careful strategic management. As Canada assumes a more assertive role in defense, sovereignty assertion, and industrial policy, Washington must work to preserve deep interoperability, economic integration, and shared strategic objectives.If these dynamics are effectively managed, the U.S.-Canada relationship will be well-positioned to adapt to a more complex and contested global environment. Strengthened by mutual investment and a renewed commitment to collective defense, the bilateral partnership has the potential to emerge as an even more resilient pillar of North American and transatlantic security.
